• 📈 Campbell’s CEO Departs for NFL
• ✅ Oobli Earns FDA GRAS Status
• 🤝 East Coast Meal Deliverers Merge
• 📦 Layoffs Come to Cargill
• 📰 What We’re Reading: Beans, Beef Tallow and Tarriffs

Nosh Live kicks off tomorrow, December 5th, in Marina del Rey, CA — don’t miss your chance to connect with the most dynamic food industry community. Today is your last opportunity to register and join two days of impactful networking, actionable insights, 1:1 retail & investor meetings, expert speakers, innovative samples, and the Nosh Live Pitch Slam. Learn more and register now. 

Another day, another trend report! As the team makes their way to Marina Del Rey for Nosh Live (which, ICYMI, kicks off tomorrow!) we’re taking a temperature check on what’s gone on this year… and what’s to come. 

This time, we’re not examining popular flavors or categories but rather how a continued shift to private label and ecommerce will shape volume and sales growth amid high food prices in 2025, according to Circana’s Year-End 2024 F&B Market Outlook. 

In 2024, overall dollar sales grew by 2.6% year-over-year while price/mix increased 1.6% and volume sales rose 1.1%. Ever-evolving consumer behaviors will continue to influence where volume growth opportunities lay. Circana highlighted three trends expected to carry over into 2025: Private label outpacing national brands, consumers shifting toward ecommerce, and rising traffic in foodservice as companies transition away from remote work. 

Private Label Gains: Amid continued inflationary pressures, value-seeking shoppers are expected to continue to lean on private brands, which saw a 3% volume increase over the past year up against a 1% decline in branded players.

• We’ve seen an influx of private label launches in 2024, including Walmart’s bettergoods, CVS’ Well Market, and Amazon Saver. Store brands have historically been centered around low prices and generic offerings but are now leveling up with attention-grabbing packaging, better-for-you attributes and sustainability claims. 

Channel Migration: E-commerce solutions are increasing convenience and price transparency, with online transactions driving 35% of F&B dollar sales growth despite holding just a 10% market share. All three fulfillment methods – delivery, pick-up, and ship-to-home – are resonating with consumers. 

• On a retailer level, a growing base of affluent households fueled Walmart’s eGrocery growth in the first half of 2024, per Brick Meets Click. The retailer’s most affluent segment (households with $200k+ in annual income) spend 1.5x more monthly than households in the lowest income bracket.

Foodservice Traffic Rises: Though consumers are generally spending more on at-home consumption, foodservice traffic is expected to improve as more employees return to the office. 

• In recent years, foodservice has become an essential channel for testing new products and driving awareness to support consumer adoption of plant-based products in particular. There are over one million foodservice outlets in the U.S., compared to a total of 350,000 points of retail distribution, providing a much larger opportunity for brands. 

Looking Ahead: Circana forecasts a moderate slowdown in economic conditions, projecting overall F&B industry dollar sales to grow between 2% and 4% and a volume sales increase between 1.5% and 3.5% in 2025. Uncertainty surrounding new government policies (e.g. proposed tariffs impacting wages, capacity, and import costs) will require careful monitoring and may also begin to weigh on margins. 

The Campbell’s Company credited its Sovos Brands acquisition as the driver of its 10% sales boost to $2.8 billion during Q1 earnings, released yesterday. Let’s take a look at the results: 

• Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $367 million. Adjusted EBIT climbed 6% to $432 million.
• The company’s meals and beverages segment saw double-digit sales growth bolstered by the Sovos deal. Excluding the acquisition, organic net sales were comparable to the prior year period, driven by gains in Prego pasta sauces and offset by declines in U.S. soup.
• Snack sales declined in a single digit range due to the divestiture of Pop Secret, as well as decreases among partners and contract brands, Pepperidge Farm cookies, Goldfish, and Late July. 

👔 The results come alongside an announcement that CEO Mark Clouse will retire in January after six years; Clouse is heading to the Washington Commanders where he will serve as team president. He will be succeeded by Mick Beekhuizen, who currently serves as EVP and president of meals and beverages at Campbell’s.

In other people move news: KeHE has added G. Scott Uzzell to its board of directors, effective immediately, according to an announcement this week. Uzzell’s resume spans a wide range of CPGs including senior leadership roles at Nike North America and Converse. Before entering the shoe game, Uzzell served as president and GM of Coca Cola’s Venturing & Emerging Brands Group (VEB). 

Sweet proteins platform Oobli announced today it has secured a “no questions” letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), effectively deeming its novel protein-based sweetener monellin Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS). 

👷 Oobli is working to build out a suite of sweet proteins having secured GRAS approval for its novel brazzein sweetener protein earlier this year. Both ingredients are intended to be used in food and beverage applications where they can be used as a complement or replacement for natural sweeteners. 

🗣️ What they said: “Food is a complex system, and when we replace sweetness in a food or beverage application, all the ingredients come into play. This is why we're so committed to approaching sweet proteins as a platform; offering more sweetener solutions to our partners.” -Jason Ryder, founder and CTO 

Feast & Fettle has acquired WECO Hospitality. The transaction will put some fuel into Feast & Fettle's expansion into Brooklyn, N.Y. early next year as both premium meal delivery services in the Northeast U.S. accelerate their growth up and down the East Coast. 

🍽️ Rhode Island-based Feast & Fettle operates a fully integrated model, combining in-house menu curation, preparation, logistics and direct-to-consumer delivery. 

💬 What they said: "WECO's customers are a natural fit for our brand, and we're excited to welcome them into a community that prioritizes quality and care. As we expand into Brooklyn and beyond, our focus remains on achieving sustainable, profitable growth while delivering the exceptional service our members trust." – Carlos Ventura, CEO of Feast & Fettle

As many as 8,000 Cargill workers may be getting pink slips in the coming weeks after the multinational food conglomerate (and the largest privately held company in America) said this week it would cut its global staff by roughly 5%. And just before the holidays!

• The company told the Associated Press yesterday that the cuts “were part of a long-term strategy ‘to strengthen Cargill’s impact’”. The company, which said it had 160,000 employees worldwide in its last annual report, operates in 70 countries with an estimated $160 billion in annual revenue.
• Bloomberg, which broke the story, noted that profits are down as the price of food commodities continue to drop following record high prices in 2022.
• So who’s impacted? Well, no surprise, probably not any major executives, sources told Bloomberg. But some senior leaders could be affected along with lower level staff. 

🫘  The New York Times food writer Bee Wilson joins The Opinions podcast team this week to extol the virtues of beans as a sustainable, nutritious, accessible form of protein.

🍳 The Atlantic examines the evolution of beef tallow in American diets as a cohort of consumers – and health secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – vocally renounce seed oils.

💰 Small businesses – including snack brands Daily Crunch and Healthy Crunch – are bracing for tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump, according to The Associated Press.