Welcome to Brewbound’s Inside Look at the Beer Business for the week that was … Saturday, September 7, 2024.

While I usually resist Justin’s notes to me to please work more politics into this newsletter, in this case – I think it’s merited. Ladies and gentlemen, I have excellent news: The Beer Party is gaining momentum.

Sadly, this party is in Austria #ofcourse. The political group was created in 2015, fronted by “Marco Pogo,” (alt: Dominik Wlazny) lead singer of the party’s in-house band, TURBOBIER 🤘, and is now polling at about 5% of the vote in the country’s elections at the end of the year.

That’s up from a 2% share of the vote in the 2020 Vienna State Elections, where the party’s platform called for “public beer fountains” and monthly beer allotments for citizens.

Clearly, the time has come for our country’s two-party system to come to an end (you did what you could, Green Party), and I can think of no better way to do so than by hiring Marco as a consultant. 

First task – how do we count the RTD people?

#FUNFACT: IPA now makes up half of all off-prem craft beer sales according to CIRCANA data through August 11, cited by Beer Marketer’s Insights. It also has a 5% share of U.S. total beer sales (note: non-alc IPA is not counted in this). 

PLUS: Danelle Kosmal of 3 TIER BEVERAGES delivered the latest 3 Up, 3 Down quarterly report, looking at sales trends inside the numbers, including some curious trends in high-end spirits.

AND: Going to the NBWA Annual Convention in San Diego later this month? Come have a toast!

• Join for a happy hour at THE LOST ABBEY! Enjoy some beers and apps with the Brewbound gang from 4-6 p.m. on Sunday, September 29 (conveniently between NFL games and before the NBWA’s opening night party!) – register for the free event here.

No details were offered in terms of the size here, or location of the cuts … other than usual corporate jargon that they’re an effort to “streamline” operations and taking place “where duplication of work exists within our organization.”

There were some reports of layoffs in 10 BARREL’s innovation division, but Tilray officials declined to confirm.

The MC deal has also already closed as of the end of August, with the exception of ATWATER, which is expected by the end of the month. TILRAY certainly does move fast, now just with fewer people. 

CINDERLANDS BEER Co.

Delivery Driver & Warehouser – Pittsburgh, PA

REVOLUTION BREWING

Area Sales Rep – Iowa

GO BREWING

Lead Cellarman and Brewer – Naperville, IL

Craft beer may be a faint memory in the CONSTELLATION halls (Sculpin? That’s a fish isn’t it?), but the wine & spirits division at CONSTELLATION is the next to really be causing some headaches. 

The company revised its FY25 sales outlook for the group from +0.5% to -0.5% to … -6% to -4% 🤯. You know it’s bad when even BOSTON BEER is like “Whoa, brotha!” when looking at the size of your revised negative sales forecast (just kidding, but one could imagine). 

Worth noting that CONSTELLATION had confirmed those 0.5% range projections just 2 months ago.

It’s also writing down $1.5B to $2.5B from the valuation of its wine and spirits brands from its books, indicating there is little optimism that this business will return.

Even FY25 beer projections took a small tick down going from +7% to +9% … to +6% to +8%. Still positive, but just not as positive. 

As for why, CONSTELLATION’s CEO cited that people buy less beer when there’s indecision about who’s gonna be president. An event that obviously, uh, no one could have predicted for their sales numbers earlier this year … ? Not sure this one passes the Jersey 😏 detector. He also cited increased unemployment hitting Hispanic consumers more than previously anticipated, something I’m personally more likely to buy.

The company’s Q2 FY25 just ended on August 31, and it will next report earnings on October 3, as the huge fall football advertising campaign continues (the company increased its media spend by +22% this year).

Yeah, we definitely ordered too much beer in June and July 🤦. The less than ideal scans that we’ve been seeing as summer progressed is definitely showing up in the NBWA’s August BPI of … 40. 

As always, a score over 50 indicates wholesalers’ intention to order more of a given product in the month ahead, and under 50 means order less.

That 40 is down from 59 in July and 58 in June, although it’s worth noting that last August was rather similar, with a 38. At-risk inventory was also thankfully below 50 at a 48.

Even below premium fell from its 62 July surge down to a 45 (although it’s up a smidge from last August’s 44).

As for craft … yeah, no change in this narrative. It had the biggest drop of any category, going from a 35 last August to a … 23 🫣. That’s also well below July’s 30.

CODO Design’s Isaac Arthur joins the pod this week to walk-thru the choose-your-own-adventure decision tree that beverage-alcohol companies should consider when thinking about they're branding, and when to determine if some brands are too iconic to touch from a design POV. 

Then the BREWBOUND trio dive into:

• The August frost that hit beer sales
• Jess trying not to be a beer nerd while making new friends at the beach
• Zoe finally getting rid of the kid competition in her cornhole tournament

Listen Here!

• July tax-paid beer shipments were estimated at -2.5% YoY according to the BI, following a June with a -7.1% number. Can’t wait for the August report 😳. YTD the number stands at -2.5% through July.
• MOLSON COORS is ceasing its DEI trainings, saying that all eligible employees had completed them, and discontinued other DEI policies like tying executive compensation to employee representation numbers, according to Bloomberg.

The discounted room block for BREWBOUND LIVE at the Marina del Rey Marriott Hotel on Dec 11 & 12 is now open! If you’re on the same floor as Justin, do not get him started on how the weather is in Iowa if you see him on your way to the vending machine. #protip  

 Also – register now here!

PITCH AWAY!: Applications to compete in this year’s Pitch Slam competition are also now open through September 30 here.

NEW SPEAKER, WHO DIS? Here are the latest industry speaker additions to the lineup!

• Rebecca Maisel, GULF DISTRIBUTING SVP legal and government affairs;
• Lauren Doll-Sheeder, DOLL DISTRIBUTING managing partner;
• Jennifer Grant, MARKSTEIN Sales general manager and VP;
• Zech Francis, BEATBOX Beverages SVP of global marketing;
• Rebecca Dye Yonushonis, NEW BELGIUM BREWING CMO;
• Lindsay Kunkle, FORESIGHT FACTORY director, head of U.S. Consultancy.

They join previously confirmed speakers:

• Mary Mills, consultant for 3 Tier Beverages;
• Arthur Moye, owner and CEO of FULL CIRCLE Brewing;
• Kaleigh Theriault, director of thought leadership, beverage alcohol vertical at NIQ;
• Brian “BK” Krueger, VP of business development and portfolio strategies at Bump Williams Consulting;
• Natalie Cilurzo, RUSSIAN RIVER co-owner;
• Peter Skrbek, CEO Deschutes Brewery;
• Lester Jones, NBWA chief economist and VP of analytics; 
• Jennifer Hauke, DRAFTLINE TECHNOLOGIES founder and president; 
• Rebecca Maisel, GULF DISTRIBUTING SVP of legal and government affairs 

PLUS - RETAILER ONE-TO-ONES: Beer and other bev-alcohol brands can participate in meetings with leaders from WHOLE FOODS, EXTRAMILE CONVENIENCE and other businesses, who will be available for private, pre-scheduled meetings. Brands will be selected at each retailer’s discretion. REGISTER HERE.

This week’s beer is simply going out to Justin, because I’m guessing he’s gonna have one either way after today’s big annual IOWA vs. IOWA STATE football game. 

The outcome will determine if it’s gonna be a lager day, or a double IPA day, although I can guarantee you neither will be from BIG GROVE. I’ll keep you posted on which he picks when I drop by his basement fridge to take my usual Saturday night pre-dinner beer from the back shelf 🤫. 

Either way, just don’t try and reach Justin from 3:30 p.m. onward today. He’ll get back to you tomorrow, and if he asks you if you've seen that FOCAL BANGER that he was keeping in the back of his beer fridge -- this conversation never happened 🤐.

Slainté!  

-Sean McNulty 

(you can always reach me here on LinkedIn)