The online grocery market may be losing traction with $7.9 billion in total sales for February – a 10.5% drop compared to last year, according to the latest Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey. Lower average order values (AOV) were the central catalyst fueling the overall downward y/y sales trends, though not all order receiving methods saw equal fates. 📦 Delivery was the only segment to grow sales YOY, up 4.7% aided by a strong rebound in monthly active users (MAUs) versus the year prior. Comparatively, ship-to-home dropped 15.4% and pickup fell 12.8%. ⬆️ In February, the weighted AOV across all segments dropped 10% y/y and no method was spared from the downturn: ship-to-home and pickup both fell 13% while delivery contracted by 7% versus last year. Most retailers and formats also saw lower AOVs versus last year to varying degrees – retail giant Walmart had a relatively small 2% dip in AOV for pickup and delivery orders while the supermarket format posted a steep 15% drop in AOV for pickup and delivery. ⬇️ In spite of the spending slump, all three order receiving methods expanded their respective MAU bases. The gains were primarily driven by an increase in the share of MAUs who received orders via multiple methods throughout February as the overall user base slipped slightly, down 30 basis points (bps). 💭 “Convenience remains one of the primary motivations for shopping online for groceries, however, for some customers, cost considerations are now weighing more heavily on their decision on how to shop. This means that the explicit costs associated with eGrocery services are more likely to impact how [they] grocery shop,” said Brick and Click partner David Bishop in the report. 🛍️ Though the total volume of eGrocery orders was flat on a y/y basis, delivery’s strong performance (+13%) offset the order volume declines seen by pickup (-7%) and ship-to-home (-3%). According to analysts, the jump in delivery was fueled by the expansion of its MAU base to the year prior rather than an increase in order frequency. 📊As a result of these shifts in segment order volume and the overall declines in AOV, pickup’s share of eGrocery sales contracted to 43.4% in February, falling by 468 bps. Meanwhile, delivery grew its share by 570 bps, finishing the month with 39.3% and ship-to-home ended February with 17.3% of eGrocery sales. 🛒Perhaps the most noteworthy part of the report is that during February, the composite grocery and mass repeat intent rate for pickup and delivery slid 850 bps to 56.2%, dropping to one of the lowest levels in over two years. Analysts said the decline was driven by second- and third- time customers who were significantly less likely to use the same service again within the next 30 days. What does this mean for the state of eGrocery in the near term? Only time will tell. |