In the wake of Tuesday’s election, beer industry trade groups are diving into the changes that could be coming and the potential impact on their members, with shifts across the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives and White House.
Republican candidate Donald Trump has been elected president, with 295 electoral votes as of press time. In the Senate, Republicans have taken the majority from Democrats, with the latter losing four seats as of press time, according to the Associated Press (AP). And the House majority is still in question, with 25 seats yet to be called. As of press time, Republicans have 211 seats and Democrats have 199, with 218 needed to have a majority. Here are some of the watchouts according to the Brewers Association (BA) and Beer Institute (BI): 💰 Taxes 2025 will be “a big year for taxes,” BA senior director of federal affairs Katie Marisic wrote in a blog post for the trade group. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed by then-President Trump in 2017, includes several provisions that will expire in 2025 or have already lapsed. Included in those expiring provisions is Section 199A, which gives small business owners the option to deduct “up to 20% of their qualified business income (QBI) from pass-through entities, such as sole proprietorships, partnerships and S corporations,” according to Marisic. “More than 70% of breweries are organized as pass through. If they are utilizing it, losing this tax provision could impact them significantly,” Marisic wrote. “Trump sees the starting point of his convocation as the Trump tax cuts, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and that's his starting point, is a full redo of the cuts themselves,” Bully Pulpit International partner Scott Mulhauser said during a panel discussion Tuesday at the BI Annual Meeting in New York City. Mulhauser was joined by BI president and CEO Brian Crawford and Fierce Government Relations managing partner Kirk Blalock. 🚢 Tariffs Trump will lead with a “tariff first policy,” according to Mulhauser, reminding attendees at Tuesday’s conference that Trump referred to tariffs last month as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” In his previous presidential term, Trump passed a 10% aluminum tariff, which the BI has vehemently opposed, claiming it has significantly raised the price of aluminum “regardless of whether the metal was meant to be tariffed” or not, and allegedly placing the majority of costs on U.S. suppliers. “Trump obviously is coming in more eyes wide open that he wants to do more and that he thinks that’s a great stick to get other countries to move,” Blalock said. Additionally, “some of the architects” behind the aluminum tariff are expected to be back at the decision-making table with Trump’s election win, according to Blalock, who recalled being in a meeting when one of those architects called former Molson Coors chairman Pete Coors “un-American, because he didn’t believe in tariffs.” Mulhauser and Blalock agreed that there appears to be a disconnect between who tariffs are meant to impact, and the actual effect it has on related industries. Mulhauser said: “We all know that it'll increase prices on consumers. Why they don't know that? I don't know, but that's their belief. Nonetheless, that's probably one of the more dangerous aspects of a Trump 2.0 from a policy perspective, and one that we should be concerned about.” Insiders can read more, including potential impacts on government funding, cannabis regulations and the Small Brewers Caucus. |