Off-premise beer category dollar sales are up +0.7%, while volume sales have declined -4.1% for the four-week period ending June 17, according to market research firm NIQ. 

Both dollar and volume trends were improvements upon the year-to-date (YTD) performance of +0.2% and -4.6%, respectively, the firm reported.

Several segments improved both dollar and volume trends for the last month, compared to YTD trends. Notable improved trends include:

• Imports (+9.3% dollars L4W vs.+6.9% YTD, +4.5% volume L4W vs. +2.8%);
• Craft (+1.6% dollars L4W vs. -3.7%, -2% volume L4W vs. -7.4%);
• FMBs minus hard seltzer (+19.7% dollars L4W vs. +10.4%, +15.7% volume L4W vs. +5.7%);
• Premium regular (+1.9% dollars L4W vs. -3.2%, -3.3% volume L4W vs. -7.3%);
• Cider (+6.1% dollars L4W vs. -1.9%, +0.4% volume L4W vs. -7.2%). 

In other data news…

📉 Bud Light Double-Digit Declines Continue

The intrigue around Bud Light’s weekly performance and the competition for the top-selling beer spot in the off-premise channel continues. 

Bud Light’s negative trends accelerated in the week leading up to Father’s Day compared to previous weeks, declining -28.5% in dollar sales and -31.1% in volume (measured in case sales) for the week ending June 17, according to Bump Williams Consulting (BWC), citing NIQ data.

Meanwhile, top competitors improved both dollar sales and volume for the week, including:

• Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial (+8.6% dollars, +4.5% volume); 
• Molson Coors’ light lagers Miller Lite (+16% dollars, +11.1% volume) and Coors Light (+21.8% dollars, +16.6% volume);
•  Yuengling Lager (+25.1% dollars, +13.3% volume).

Even as the Bud Light brand struggles on a week-to-week basis, the brand remains the top-selling beer in the off-premise channel YTD:

• Bud Light holds 8.8% share of beer category dollars YTD and 10.6% volume share of beer;
• Modelo Especial holds 8% share of beer category dollars YTD, and 6.7% volume share of beer.

Latest four-week dollar sales trends favor Modelo Especial (8.4% to 7.1%,), but Bud Light remains the top beer by volume share (8.6% to 7.1%, respectively). 

Even more data ...

📊 Scanning the Scans

Market research firm Circana offered a one-week scorecard for off-premise scans for the week ending June 18, covering the full Father’s Day weekend.

High level: Total beverage alcohol was up +1.8% compared to a year ago and up +4.5% compared to the prior week in absolute dollars in off-premise channels tracked by Circana. Beer category off-premise dollar sales eked out dollar sales growth (+0.5%) compared to a year ago and week-over-week (+3.7%). Beer dominated total sales ($990.9 million) compared to spirits ($239.7 million) and wine ($259.8 million). 

Good weeks: Circana EVP of bev-alc Scott Scanlon shared a few beer category and spirits category standouts, with his own commentary, including:

• Modelo posted +21% comps and is “the growth leader and new overall category king;” 
• Yuengling recorded +390% growth and “continues outperformance surge;”
• Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked was up +49% and “continues top 27 with continued growth likely;”
• Tito’s Vodka generated +9% growth and has a “firm category hold” over spirits;
• High Noon Sun Sips increased sales +43% and “does not appear to be releasing spirits second place anytime soon;
• BeatBox is in the spirits top 35 with +135% comps.

Brewbound Insiders can go deeper in the link.

🎇 On-Premise to See July 4 Boost, Per CGA

Bars and restaurants are expected to see a sales boost this coming week due to Independence Day.

On-premise market research firm CGA, a NIQ company, looked back at sales trends during July 4, 2022, to give a sense of what to expect this year:

• On-premise sales velocity +17% on July 4 versus a typical Monday;
• Drink-led outlets velocity +31%, food-led outlets velocity +16%;
• Big boost for independent on-premise outlets, which increased sales velocity +44%.

Insiders can read more here, including on-premise data from the latest week (ending June 17).

Packing a pineapple punch, a few alcoholic tepache brands are aiming to find a niche for the ancient Mexican beverage among the rise of Mexican distilled spirits and flavor-forward RTDs. 

While a few non-alc counterparts like De La Calle have raised awareness of the drink via grocery shelves since 2021, new entrants like Sazón and Tequila Tepache Hi-Ball are upping the ABV and going after agave spirit-heavy on-premise accounts (think beer and a shot, but “through a Mexican lens”). 

To differentiate from other emerging hard fermented beverages, these brands are focused on the culture behind the drink and presenting a premium, tropical beverage to compete with RTDs. Insiders can read about how these new brands are aiming to create interest in the U.S.

Barrett Beverage, a Clackamas, Oregon-based co-packer and contract bev-alc manufacturer, has changed its name to Conspirator Beverage.

The name change comes as the Conspirator continues to add capabilities at its Oregon facility, which houses a 20-barrel, three-vessel brewing system and 800-barrel cellar. 

Read more information in the press release.

Sheehan Family Companies have offloaded another craft distributor: Craft Rhode Island, according to Beer Marketer’s Insights. Molson Coors house C&C Distributors will pick up the 160,000-case business when the deal closes in July. 

Sheehan’s craft sale has included its branches in New Hampshire, Maine, and Maryland and Washington, D.C. Also of note, Sheehan’s Maryland wholesaler does not carry Flying Dog, despite the brand being listed on the wholesaler’s website.

Carlsberg has signed an agreement to sell its Russian business, Reuters reported.

The Danish brewer did not name the buyer or the agreed price, but previously quoted an expected 9.9 billion Danish crowns writedown (about $1.45 billion) should it sell the business. 

Carlsberg CEO Cees ‘t Hart:

"The signing of an agreement to sell the Russian business is a very important milestone in the highly complex separation and selling process.

"While it has been an extensive process, it has been important for us to reach the best possible solution for all stakeholders, including our more than 8,000 employees in Russia."

The deal will need to be approved by Russian authorities, which is no guarantee, Sydbank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen told Reuters.

The Ohio Craft Brewers Association shared some key stats from 2022. Notable numbers:

• 42 breweries opened in the state last year, increasing the total to 420 craft breweries;
• 64 breweries in planning last year;
• The Buckeye State ranked sixth in volume, with about 1.29 million barrels produced (+18.7% compared to 2020);
• Ohio’s craft brewers contributed $1.27 billion in economic output, up from $880.7 million in 2020;
• Ohio’s craft brewing industry contributed 9,246 direct jobs and 12,040 total jobs (up from 8,295 in 2020), supported 8,095 households (up from 5,577 in 2020) and paid $389 million in income (up from $253.1 million in 2020).

The guild attributed the economic growth to consumer spending in taprooms across the state, but noted “significant obstacles to growth via distribution, attributable to an increase in competition over the past 10 years as well as artificial barriers to market access caused by Ohio’s nearly 50-year-old franchise law, which traps small breweries in unfair, unbreakable contracts with large, powerful distributors.”

Read the full report.

Leaders from Dogfish Head, Total Wine & More, Burke Distributing and Bump Williams Consulting will share their perspectives on the beer industry’s performance following the July 4 holiday during Brewbound’s Brew Talks meetup in Boston on July 12. Tickets are available now.

The state of the industry conversation will explore insights from Bump Williams Consulting’s survey of brewers, wholesalers and retailers and dive into current market trends at the retail and wholesale levels. Panelists include:

• Kristen Burke, Burke Distributing chief corporate growth officer;
• Sam Calagione, Dogfish Head co-founder;
• Dave Williams, Bump Williams Consulting VP of analytics and insights;
• Andrea Starr, Total Wine & More, director of beer merchandising.

Brew Talks will also explore what is next for the hazy IPA style and innovation with the leaders of four Massachusetts craft breweries:

• Dino Funari, Vitamin Sea founder;
• Kimberly Golinski, Wormtown Brewery president and GM.
• Megan Parisi, head brewer of the Samuel Adams downtown Boston taproom;
• Naveen Pawar, co-founder of Mighty Squirrel Brewing Co.

Castle Island co-founder Adam Romanow will also share an update on the Massachusetts Brewers Guild’s legislative agenda and priorities. 

Get your tickets today.

Aaron Smith, a DeLoach Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis, posted a Twitter thread last week detailing declines in hop harvests and analyzing whether the declines mean the craft boom is over. 

In 2022, for the first time in more than a decade, U.S. farmers harvested less hops than the previous year. However, as Smith and Brewers Association (BA) chief economist Bart Watson later concluded, hop declines are not due to a lack of demand, but rather overloaded inventories. 

Check out the full thread here.