• 👀 A Bite With Kodiak’s CEO
• 🚫 Not Just Co. Shuts Down
• 💡 New GLP-1 Insights
• 🤝 MingsBings, Nestle Ink Deal
• 💰 60 Startups. $7 Million. How Ignite20 Is Funding The Future Of CPG.

Inflation, tariffs, recession…economic headlines are plastering front pages these days. But what does all of this mean for packaged food? Let’s sift through the latest data to find out.

Overall, inflation is down 0.1%, per last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report; that’s a slightly positive sign after it rose 0.2% in February. Sounds good, right? 

• Unfortunately, food was an outlier to the trend – with the category’s inflation rate  rising 0.4%, up 3% in the last 12 months. 
• The increase was partially driven by elevated egg costs, with the unhatched chicken index clucking up 60.4% in the last 12 months.

Although food inflation has moderated since its high point in early 2022, it is still rising faster than most shoppers would prefer.

The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey did not add any confidence to last week’s CPI numbers, declining for its fourth straight month and notching its lowest reading since 1981. According to Numerator, 72% of consumers are worried about prices going up on everyday goods (vs. 64% in February). Sixty percent of shoppers expressed concern that tariffs will increase grocery prices.

Tracked sales data adds another economic storm to the forecast with a clear pullback in spending (-0.8%) shown across the past four weeks in U.S. food, according to Jefferies’ analysis of Nielsen data. Dollar sales declined nearly across all tracked companies with the exception of egg producer Vital Farms (25.5%) as well as protein pushers Simply Good Foods (1.9%) and BellRing Brands (36%)... Eek. At least everyone is getting their protein shakes.

What does this all mean? Mainly, that perception matters when it comes to buying behavior. Uncertainty breeds fear, which impacts how businesses make decisions and how consumers spend their money. Shoppers aren’t opening their wallets when the trade and economy appear unsteady, and when that behavior bleeds into companies’ P&L statements, investment and innovation can dry up.

Snack maker Mondelēz said in an April investor presentation that it was adjusting its strategy from “cost-reduction and percentage margins” to “volume-driven profitable growth and funding reinvestment.” 

Not to be all doom-and-gloom, but the data doesn’t bode well for the short term and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. Put more succinctly by Samuel L. Jackson’s “Jurassic Park” character Ray Arnold: “Hold onto your butts.”

Go Deeper: Mondelēz Anticipates Weak 2025 Earnings

When a founder-led, mission-driven brand moves into new hands, all eyes are on what comes next. Ever since Kodiak’s acquisition by L Catterton in 2021, it has hit the gas on innovation while working to preserve the brand’s ethos and mission, said CEO Val Oswalt. 

• In fact, the team has leaned into its mission and ethos even more, she said, resulting in the highest revenue results in the company’s nearly 35-year-long history.
• Oswalt came up in the industry at Big CPGs including Mondelēz and Kraft, later leading PE-backed Century Snacks as CEO before moving into her current post. 

📞 We recently caught up with her to learn more about what’s changed since the acquisition and what’s next for Kodiak while gleaning insight on how any CPG brand can stay nimble amid shifting consumer and regulatory winds.

Check out the full interview on Nosh. 

Modern pantry staple maker not just co. has shut down after more than six years in operation, as the business became “pretty unmanageable from a working capital standpoint” over the past year, according to co-founder and CEO Catherine Smart. 

• The brand produced a variety of vegan products with unique flavor profiles, including 10 Veggies Past Sauce and Lemon Miso Salad Dressing.
• At its peak, not just co. was available in approximately 600 doors nationwide, including Roche Bros, ShopRite, Fairway and Target. 
• In total, the company raised $1.8 million in funding via small checks. Smart said that, were she to do it over again, she would raise a larger chunk of cash to start. 

💭 “Realizing something just isn’t working is a tough call to make, especially when your hand is so close to your face you can’t see clearly. I feel really proud that we exhausted all options to try to make [not just co.] work. We definitely pushed it as far as we could have,” said Smart. 

Insiders can learn more in the full story on Nosh.

Most consumers who have used GLP-1 weight loss medications retain healthy eating habits after stopping the drugs, according to new research from the Acosta Group. Here are some insights from the study:

• 55% of GLP-1 users are eating smaller portions.
• 49% are eating more healthy foods and fewer snacks.
• 75% are interested in products that are fortified with vitamins and nutrients.
• 46% of previous GLP-1 users said they would take it again to lose more weight.

👉 Key takeaway: Ninety-one percent of millennials, 90% of Gen Z and 64% of Gen X on GLP-1 medications are interested in packaged foods that support their weight loss goals, with clear messaging on-pack.

Case Study: Gutzy Organic Riding GLP-1 Trend

Mings is moving beyond Bings, thanks to a licensing partnership with Nestle to expand the frozen brand into noodle dishes. 

⏪ Rewind: Chef Ming Tsai founded MingsBings eight years ago as a line of frozen handhelds featuring classic American flavors in a Chinese-inspired crunchy brown rice wrap.

🍜 Nestle is bringing Mings into the frozen entree segment, with a range of meals including Chicken Ramen and Spicy Dan Dan Noodles, spotted at Walmart stores nationwide.

💬 "Mings was created in partnership with the chefs and culinary experts at Nestlé to bring bold, authentic Asian flavors to consumers wherever and whenever," Tsai said in a statement.

Go Deeper: MingsBings To Sell Meat-Based Products

Ignite20 isn’t just cutting checks. The new $7 million venture capital fund and hybrid accelerator is lighting a fire under the next wave of CPG innovators. Gabriela Morales, Ignite20’s co-founder and managing director, talks about how the fund is rethinking early-stage investing. 

Listen to the episode here. You can also tune in on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.